31.05. - 08.06.2016 Gewitterthread

Guten Morgen,

ein weiterer Tag mit Level 1 und der Gefahr von langsam ziehenden Zellen mit Starkregen und Überflutungsgefahr sowie Hagel und einzelnen Sturmböen.
Man sollte auch die Regengebiete nicht vernachlässigen, die ohne Gewitter über der selben Region viel Regen abladen können. Da nun seit Sonntag letzter Woche in einigen Gebieten schon viel Niederschlag aufsummiert wurde, ist die Gefahr von Überflutungen nochmal deutlich erhöht.

Heute zieht zunächst ein Regengebiet über uns hinweg, ehe dahinter im Tagesverlauf die Konvektion wieder auflebt.

VG
Markus

Zitat

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 03 Jun 2016 06:00 to Sat 04 Jun 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 02 Jun 2016 20:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued from Romania to Benelux mainly for isolated large hail, excessive rain and a severe wind gust or two.

SYNOPSIS

Weak
geopotential height gradients prevail over Europe. Longbreathed
cyclonic circulation over CNTRL Europe weakens and moves towards
Benelux. A stronger mid-level wave exits the Ionian Sea to the east and
is accompanied by rather strong mid-level flow of up to 30 m/s at 500
hPa. An intense trough over N-Norway/Sweden rotates east/southeast while
weakening a bit.

Regarding surface fronts, the main feature is
an occlusion over N-Norway/Sweden which is pegged to the aforementioned
trough and moves to the SE. Else no fronts - important for DMC
initiation - are predicted.

DISCUSSION

... CNTRL - / E- Europe ...

Another day
with widespread CI until sunset and a gradual downswing thereafter. DLS
of less than 10 m/s and BL mixing ratios of 9-10 g/kg indicate an
enhanced risk for slow moving effective rain producing
showers/thunderstorms with a gradual upscale growth into numerous
clusters. During initiation, isolated large hail (but mainly large
amounts of small hail) and gusty winds are forecast. Betimes the risk
transforms into an heavy rainfall risk with numerous flash flood events
expected. The highest risk for excessive rain arises from S-Poland to
Moldova with peak PPWs and backbuilding tendencies of storms. W-Germany
experiences similar PPWs, but slow forward propagating storm vectors
should keep probabilities for training storm activity on the lower end
side.

Right now, no region with high confidence for extreme
rainfall amounts can be detected and hence no level 2 was issued.
Mesoscale boundaries and orography probably dictate that risk.

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Hallo zusammen,

gibt im Grunde das gleiche zu sagen wie gestern: Akutell türmen sich die ersten Cu über Harz, Thüringer Wald und Schiefergebirge. Nachmittags dann wieder lokale Multizellen mit örtlich ergiebigem Starkregen, Hagel und einelnen stürmsichen Böen. Die Fexen verteilen wieder eine großzügige 1 wegen lokal ergiebigem Starkregen, örtlich großem Hagel und Sturmböen:

Zitat

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 05 Jun 2016 06:00 to Mon 06 Jun 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 04 Jun 2016 18:39

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 2 was issued for W-Germany, NE-France,
S-Belgium and Luxembourg mainly for isolated large hail, severe wind
gusts and heavy/excessive rain.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2
and covers most parts of SE and parts of CNTRL-/E-Europe mainly for
isolated excessive rainfall amounts and isolated large hail/severe wind
gusts.

...
... NE France, Belgium, Luxembourg and W-Germany ...

There's not much change regarding anticipated ingredients. Deep layer flow remains weak to non-existent ... despite 10-20 kt 1-8 km easterly flow over Luxembourg and Belgium. Decaying mid-level vortex induces a weak mark at the surface with divergent model signals regarding a closed BL circulation or a pronounced E-W aligned surface trough. Emitting dry/stable air from a 1025 (plus) hPa high over the N-Sea converges with cyclonic flow of the aforementioned surface feature and creates a diffuse E-W aligned convergence zone from NE France to W-Germany.

BL mixing ratios increase to 9-12 g/kg beneath modest mid-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings in this region show MLCAPE of 1.5 kJ/kg and locally higher MUCAPE peaks. Air mass is weakly capped and either orography or deep convergent flow induce scattered to widespread DMC activity. Given amount of CAPE build-up and marginally enhanced deep-layer flow, well organized and slow moving multicells are forecast with confined swaths of heavy/excessive rain. Large hail is possible during CI given a dry 4-6 km layer. Also, well mixed and dry low-tropospheric profiles in forecast soundings indicate a chance for both, isolated strong / severe downbursts and strong cold pools. The latter one would support a gradual upscale growth of DMC activity into numerous leisurely westward propagating smaller-scale thunderstorm clusters. Strong wind gusts along the leading edge and excessive rain will be the dominant risk.
Given expected high coverage of reports including the chance of a few very heavy rainfall events, a confined level 2 area was added.

Surrounding the level 2, pulsating convection with numerous more intense updrafts once again result in a few heavy/extreme rainfall events on a very localized scale.
...

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Aktuell bei Dachrieden nördlich Mühlhausen:

Gesendet von Markus via Tapatalk

Hallo zusammen!

Mal sehen ob der Bericht morgen kommt... So lange gibts 4 Eindrücke von heute.
Strecke: Weimar - Erfurt - Mühlhausen - Dingelstädt - Mühlhausen - Ebeleben - Toba - Sömmerda - Buttstädt - Weimar

Die zur Mittagszeit entsandenen Zellen pulsierten pünktlich zu meiner Ankunft bei Mühlhausen wieder zum Leben.. Und was für Leben. Ich stand genau zwischen den beiden Zellen und kam kurz in den Starkregen (-> gemeldet):

Dann konnte ich noch ein paar Blitze über Mühlhausen einfangen:

Hagelreste bei Küllstädt (EIC). Die größten schafften es auf 1,5cm:

In Bickenriede wurde über die Luhne der gefallenen Regen abgeführt:

Danach ging es weiter nach Sömmerda, wo ich die nächste Multizelle abfangen konnte und bis zum Abend noch weitere ansehnliche Strukturen zu Gesicht bekam.

VG
Markus